What gets published
Probability distribution of UK CPI over 3 years, conditioned on market interest rate path — the BoE's signature inflation forecast.
Probability distribution of UK GDP growth — showing whether the MPC sees a soft landing or recession risk.
MPC's central forecast for UK unemployment — key input for assessing wage and services inflation pressure.
Explicit analytical judgements the committee has made about the economy — the hypotheses to test against incoming data.
How to read it
If the inflation fan chart is skewed upward (wider shading on the upside), the MPC thinks risks are to the higher side — a hawkish signal. If centred on 2% in two years, the baseline is on track. If skewed downward, the MPC is worried about undershooting — a dovish signal. The February 2027 report will reflect Q4 2026 data including the November services CPI reacceleration.
Inflation expectations →The projections are conditioned on market interest rate expectations at the time of publication. If markets expect the BoE to cut three times in 2027 and inflation is still above 2% on that path in two years, the MPC is implicitly saying cuts should be more gradual. If inflation is below 2% on the market path, cuts can proceed as expected.
Real interest rate →Given that services CPI re-accelerated to 5.1% in November 2026, the February MPR's treatment of services inflation will be closely watched. The MPC will need to explain whether the November jump was a one-off (education fees, seasonal) or a signal of persistent domestic price pressure. Its language on the wage-services link will set the tone for the H1 2027 cutting pace.
Unit labour costs →On the day
FEB 2027 · times in UTCMPR, MPC minutes, vote split, and Governor Bailey's opening statement all released simultaneously.
Q&A with financial journalists — tone and language often move markets as much as the MPR itself.
Explorer reflects updated UK inflation context and BoE rate path.
February MPR: what the BoE's fan chart tells us about UK rate cuts in 2027.