NEWS & RELEASES
New inflation figures the day they're published, what moved them, and what they mean — with a link to the data behind every number.
Inflation rose in both the euro area and the UK in August. Look past the headline, though, and the picture is much steadier — energy did most of the lifting.
Read the analysis →Inflation rose in both the euro area and the UK in August. Look past the headline, though, and the picture is much steadier — energy did most of the lifting.
The final figure came in a notch below the 3.3% flash estimate, up from 2.9% in July. Energy prices were the sole driver.
Motor fuels made the largest upward contribution; core inflation held at 2.6% for the third consecutive month.
Core CPI eased to 2.4%, its lowest reading since March 2021, as goods prices continued to retreat.
The 12-month rate is down from 5.1% in June; prices rose 0.2% on the month. Food remains the largest driver.
Eurostat publishes two euro-area figures each month. Here's what changed between the flash on 1 September and the final on 17 September — and why it matters.
CPIH adds owner-occupiers' housing costs and ran 0.2 percentage points above CPI in August. Here's when each number is the right one to use.
Bulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026 — Eurostat's HICP and our euro-area data now reflect an EA21 composition.
Answers to the questions that come up most often across our stories — drawn from every release, explainer, and analysis we publish.
The 12-month headline rate compares today's prices to prices exactly a year ago. Energy prices fell sharply in mid-2025, so comparing August 2026 to that lower base makes the annual rate look higher — even though energy prices haven't moved much recently. This is called a base effect. Once we pass the low-price period in the comparison window, the headline rate should ease again.
Core inflation excludes food and energy from the basket, because those categories are driven by global commodity markets rather than domestic demand. The ECB and the Bank of England watch core as a better guide to where inflation is heading over the medium term. In August, core held steady in the euro area and the UK and fell in the US — which is why policy-setters are not alarmed by the headline rise.
By the ECB's 2% target it is above goal, but well below the peak of 10.6% reached in October 2022 — the highest rate since the HICP series began. The current level reflects the normalisation process following the 2021–23 energy shock. You can compare the full history using our inflation explorer.
Eurostat publishes a flash estimate for September on 2 October 2026. The final figure follows on 16 October. The full statistical database is updated at the same time and is freely accessible.
HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is Eurostat's cross-country comparable measure, designed so that inflation can be compared across all EU member states on the same basis. It differs from national CPIs in coverage — most notably it excludes owner-occupiers' housing costs — and in basket construction rules. The euro-area aggregate is a weighted average of all member states' HICPs. The ECB publishes detailed HICP breakdowns on its statistics portal.
Virtually all of the 0.3 percentage-point increase came from energy. Energy prices rose 14.3% year on year in August, up from 10.3% in July. This reflects a base effect: energy prices were relatively low in August 2025, making the comparison look more dramatic than current price trends warrant. The Eurostat euro indicators portal publishes the full component breakdown.
This article does not offer policy forecasts. What the data shows is that underlying (core) inflation held steady at 2.6% — meaning the headline rise was not driven by broad domestic demand. Central banks typically look through energy-driven spikes when core is stable. Monitor the ECB's own press conferences and the ECB Economic Bulletin for the official policy stance.
The 12-month rate compares prices now to prices a year ago. Fuel prices fell sharply in August 2025. In August 2026, they fell less — so the annual comparison looks worse even though this year's fuel prices haven't surged. That gap is called a base effect. The ONS bulletin explains which components drove the move in detail.
CPIH adds owner-occupiers' housing costs (OOH) to the standard CPI basket, measured as an imputed rent — what a homeowner would pay to rent their own property. OOH has a weight of roughly 17% in CPIH. The ONS CPIH explained guide covers the methodology in full. When housing costs are rising fast, CPIH runs above CPI, as it did in August (3.3% vs 3.1%). The ONS considers CPIH its preferred measure.
It is above the Bank of England's 2% target, but well below the October 2022 peak of 11.1% — the highest in the ONS series going back to 1989. The current reading reflects the tail end of the post-pandemic inflation surge rather than a fresh acceleration. Core inflation at 2.6% and stable services at 3.4% suggest the underlying trend is broadly under control.
Most of the 3.4% headline is explained by two categories: shelter (housing costs, 36% of the basket, still running at 5%) and energy (+5.6%). Core inflation — which excludes energy and food — has fallen to 2.4%, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy on goods and services prices. The headline is slow to respond partly because shelter inflation lags actual rent changes by 12–18 months. The Federal Reserve explains its inflation framework in its FAQ.
CPI-U (the headline) measures the price change across the full basket of goods and services, including food and energy. Core CPI removes food and energy from that basket to reveal the underlying trend, which is less affected by global commodity prices. The BLS CPI detailed tables publish both measures monthly. In August 2026, the gap between headline (3.4%) and core (2.4%) was entirely explained by energy prices.
The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation using the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) deflator, not CPI. PCE runs slightly lower than CPI because of methodological differences, including how it handles healthcare and housing. This article covers CPI only; monitor the BEA's monthly PCE release for the Fed's preferred measure.
Several factors drive higher inflation in Armenia: it is a smaller, more open economy heavily dependent on food and energy imports; the dram exchange rate amplifies global price swings; and domestic supply chains are less diversified than in larger economies. Food has a much larger weight in the Armenian CPI basket than in EU measures, so global food price rises tracked by the FAO hit the headline harder. The IMF's Armenia country page provides additional macroeconomic context.
The Central Bank of Armenia targets 4% inflation with a ±1.5 percentage-point tolerance band, making the current 4.4% reading within the acceptable range. The bank uses a standard inflation-targeting framework similar to those of the Bank of England and many other central banks. The CBA publishes quarterly inflation reports on its website.
Our explorer uses World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), which incorporate Armstat's published CPI series. Monthly data comes from the IMF's Global Economic Monitor (GEM). There is typically a lag of several months before the most recent readings appear in the WDI series.
Eurostat does not "correct" flash estimates in the sense of issuing an erratum — they are provisional by design. The final figure replaces the flash in official data releases. Historical databases (including World Bank WDI, which this site uses) always contain the final series, not the flash. So revisions do not appear in our charts. Eurostat's HICP methodology guide explains the revision process in detail.
Smaller euro-area member states take longer to collect, process and transmit their national price data to Eurostat. Some also require additional quality-assurance steps before submission. The two-week window between flash and final allows those members' data to be incorporated into the aggregate. Eurostat's euro indicators release calendar shows exact publication dates each month.
The euro area is the most prominent user of the flash-then-final system. Individual euro-area countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy) also publish national flashes in the days before Eurostat's aggregate flash. The US BLS publishes a single CPI release with no separate flash. The UK ONS publishes one release per month with no preliminary estimate.
CPI follows the internationally harmonised HICP framework used across the EU, which explicitly excludes owner-occupiers' housing costs because there is no single agreed method for measuring them across countries. The UK retained this approach for its CPI to maintain international comparability. CPIH was introduced to give a more complete domestic picture while keeping CPI as the internationally comparable series.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee targets CPI at 2%. CPIH is not used for the official target. However, the MPC regularly discusses CPIH alongside CPI in its Monetary Policy Reports to understand the full cost-of-living picture for households.
The ONS publishes Household Cost Indices (HCIs) that include mortgage interest costs. During the 2022–24 rate-hiking cycle, HCIs ran well above CPIH for mortgaged owner-occupiers. Neither CPI nor CPIH captures this directly. For the August 2026 period, with the base rate having come down from its 2023 peak, the gap between HCI and CPIH would be narrower than two years ago.
Barely. Bulgaria has a weight of about 0.7% in the euro-area HICP, so even if Bulgarian inflation ran 5 percentage points above the rest of the euro area, the effect on the aggregate rate would be around 0.035 percentage points — well within rounding. The European Commission's Bulgaria euro adoption page covers the accession details, and Eurostat's HICP methodology explains how composition changes are handled.
Eurostat uses chain-linking: the pre-accession EA aggregate and the post-accession aggregate are linked at the joining date, so the growth rates on either side of the join remain accurate. The level of the index is adjusted at the link point. This means historical rates (e.g. peak 2022 inflation) are not revised when a new country joins — only the composition of future months changes. The World Bank WDI series for the euro area reflects Eurostat's chain-linked aggregate.
Our euro-area annual rates come from the World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), indicator FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, which uses Eurostat's HICP series. Monthly rates come from the IMF Global Economic Monitor (GEM). Both are updated with final Eurostat figures; flash estimates are not included.