What gets published
Headline and core PCE, year-on-year and month-on-month rates. Core PCE is the Fed's primary policy target at 2%.
Wages, transfer payments, and proprietors' income — monthly change in nominal and real terms.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: goods vs services split, nominal and real (inflation-adjusted).
Income minus spending as a share of disposable income. A declining saving rate signals households are spending beyond income growth.
Price deflators for services, durable goods, and nondurable goods — used to construct GDP accounts.
How to read it
The Fed formally targets PCE inflation (not CPI). Core PCE typically runs 0.3–0.5 percentage points below core CPI for two reasons: (1) PCE weights services (especially healthcare) more heavily than CPI, and healthcare inflation tends to be higher; but (2) PCE uses chain-weighting that captures substitution away from expensive items — so it rises more slowly when, say, consumers switch from expensive beef to cheaper chicken. The current spread: core PCE 2.7% vs core CPI 3.2% — consistent with historical norms.
PCE Deflator →"Super-core" PCE — core services excluding housing — is what Fed officials have cited as the most important near-term inflation signal. It strips out shelter (which lags the housing market by 12–18 months) and goods (which have largely disinflated). Super-core PCE has been running at approximately 3.2–3.4% in 2026 — well above the Fed's implicit 2% target for this component. Any deceleration in super-core will be watched closely.
Core inflation →The saving rate in this release tells you about consumer resilience. A falling saving rate means households are spending more than income growth alone would support — either drawing down savings or borrowing. The US saving rate has been running 3–4% in 2026, well below the pre-pandemic norm of ~7%. A further decline would signal consumer spending is supported by balance-sheet drawdowns, not income gains — important for assessing demand-side inflation pressure.
Demand-pull inflation →On the day
OCT 2026 · times in ETFull PDF release with tables posted simultaneously at bea.gov. PCE headline and core are in Table 9 of the release.
US Treasuries, USD, and equity futures react. Core PCE surprise (vs consensus) is the primary market driver. Personal spending vs consensus is secondary.
If the FOMC is not in its pre-meeting quiet period, Fed officials may comment on the data. October 31 is typically just outside the quiet period for the November meeting.
Equity market opens with PCE data fully priced in by most participants.