How to track inflation in real time: the complete data toolkit

The first step in tracking inflation in real time is knowing when the data lands. Set up calendar alerts for the key release dates:

• US CPI: BLS release schedule — published ~2 weeks after month-end, always at 08:30 ET.
• Euro area HICP flash: Eurostat euro-indicators calendar — flash at ~30 days after month-end; final at ~45 days.
• UK CPI: ONS release calendar — published ~2.5 weeks after month-end, always at 07:00 GMT.
• Central bank decisions: FOMC calendar, ECB Governing Council dates, BoE MPC calendar.

Our Events page aggregates all major upcoming releases in one place with countdown timers.

Commodity prices move daily and feed into CPI with a 1–3 month lag. The most important to watch:

• Oil (Brent crude): FRED DCOILBRENTEU — daily data, strong predictor of energy CPI 4–8 weeks ahead.
• US gasoline retail prices: US EIA weekly gas price survey — published every Monday, directly used in BLS energy CPI calculation.
• Food commodities: FAO Food Price Index (monthly), World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly). The FAO index leads food CPI by 2–3 months.
• Natural gas (EU TTF hub): Critical for European energy bills and industrial costs. Available via Bloomberg or EEX exchange data.

Markets price inflation expectations in real time through inflation-linked bonds and swaps:

• US 10-year TIPS breakeven: FRED T10YIE — the difference between 10-year nominal Treasury yield and 10-year TIPS yield. Reflects 10-year average inflation expected by markets. Updated daily.
• US 5-year TIPS breakeven: FRED T5YIE — shorter horizon, more reactive to current data.
• Euro area 5y5y inflation swap: The ECB's preferred long-run measure. Available via Bloomberg; the ECB publishes it periodically in its Economic Bulletin.
• UK gilt breakeven: Bank of England yield curve data includes inflation compensation derived from index-linked gilt yields.

See our guide to inflation expectations for a deeper explanation of what these measures mean and how to interpret them.

Several institutions publish high-frequency alternative inflation measures between official CPI releases:

• Truflation: A daily inflation index using 10 million+ price points from retailers, updated daily. Available at truflation.com. Useful for spotting emerging trends 2–4 weeks before the BLS release.
• MIT Billion Prices Project: Online prices index scraped from e-commerce — often leads official CPI by 2–4 weeks.
• Adobe Digital Price Index: Published monthly, tracks e-commerce prices across categories. Useful for goods inflation signals.
• Zillow Observed Rent Index: Zillow rent data is a real-time leading indicator for the shelter component of CPI — leads OER by 12–18 months.

The caveat: alternative measures use non-representative samples (online prices, listed rents) and may diverge from official CPI for structural reasons. Use them directionally, not as a substitute for official data.

A practical weekly routine for inflation monitoring (under 30 minutes):

1. Monday: Check the EIA weekly gasoline price. Is it up or down from last week, and vs 4 weeks ago (the relevant CPI comparison window)?
2. Tuesday: Check FRED for the latest 10-year TIPS breakeven. Has market inflation expectation moved meaningfully in the past week?
3. Mid-week: Scan the ECB Economic Bulletin (published every other Thursday) or Fed press releases for any central bank commentary on inflation.
4. When a CPI release drops: Follow the five-step component framework from our reading components guide.
5. Monthly: Check the FAO Food Price Index (first Friday of each month) and the World Bank commodity outlook for medium-term food and energy signals.