Argentina's inflation in 2026: from 211% to 85% — Milei's stabilisation in numbers

Argentina's National Institute of Statistics (INDEC) resumed credible CPI publication in 2017 after a period from 2007–2015 when official figures were widely regarded as politically manipulated. Since 2017, INDEC's CPI is broadly trusted by economists and international institutions. The IMF includes Argentine CPI in its WEO database (the only period excluded is 2007–2015). The current methodology uses a basket based on a 2004–05 household survey — somewhat dated — but index construction appears sound.

Argentina's high inflation has deep structural roots: chronic fiscal deficits funded by central bank money creation, a cycle of currency depreciation and wage indexation, weak institutional independence at the BCRA, and repeated debt crises destroying credibility of commitment to price stability. The 2020–23 episode was triggered by pandemic fiscal stimulus, supply disruptions, and a collapse of dollar reserves under the previous government that forced accelerating monetisation of deficits. The 2021–23 acceleration from ~50% to 211% was the direct result of deficit monetisation in a context of foreign exchange controls that suppressed the official exchange rate while the parallel rate surged.