Armenia's 12-month CPI rate eased to 3.9% in September 2026, according to data published by Armstat (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia). This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline from the June peak of 5.1% and brings inflation to its lowest level since early 2022.
What drove the fall
The main driver of the September decline was a moderation in energy and non-food goods prices. Fuel and utility costs, which contributed significantly to the June–July spike following disruptions to pipeline supply from Russia, have normalised. Non-food goods inflation fell 0.6 percentage points to 2.8%.
Food prices remain elevated at 5.2% year-on-year, still the single largest contributor to headline inflation. Bread, dairy and fresh vegetables drove the food component, partially offset by falling cooking oil prices as global vegetable oil markets eased. The World Bank's food price monitor has tracked a global easing in grains and oils since mid-2026, which is beginning to pass through to Armenian consumer prices.
Central bank response
The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) held its refinancing rate at 7.25% at its October 2026 meeting. The CBA's official inflation target is 4% ±1.5 percentage points — September's reading of 3.9% places Armenia within the target band for the first time since 2021. The CBA signalled it may begin a gradual easing cycle in Q1 2027 if disinflation continues.
Armenia uses a CPI compiled by Armstat based on a basket of approximately 450 goods and services. The basket is updated annually and weighted by household expenditure survey data. Unlike the EU, Armenia does not publish an HICP-equivalent measure, so cross-country comparisons with European data should account for methodological differences.
Outlook
The IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026) projects Armenia's average annual CPI at 4.1% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027, consistent with the ongoing disinflation trend. Key risks to the outlook include currency depreciation (the dram has weakened ~3% against the dollar since August), energy import prices, and geopolitical spillovers affecting trade routes.