Euro area HICP confirmed at 2.9% for September 2026

Eurostat confirmed euro-area HICP at 2.9% in September 2026, matching the flash estimate released on 2 October. This marks the third consecutive month below 3% and the lowest rate since March 2021, when the post-pandemic energy and supply-chain shock was only beginning to build.

Core inflation continues to ease

Core HICP — which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.5%. Services inflation, often regarded as the stickiest component and closely watched by the ECB, eased from 4.2% to 3.9%. Goods (non-energy industrial goods) fell to 1.3%. The gap between core and headline has narrowed sharply from its 2023 peak, when core ran more than 1.5 percentage points above headline.

Country breakdown

Within the EA21, inflation ranged from a low of 0.8% in Lithuania to a high of 4.9% in Slovakia. Germany printed 2.4%, France 1.8%, and Spain 1.6%. Italy came in at 1.2% — below the euro-area aggregate. The dispersion of rates across member states, while still wider than the 2015–2019 average, has narrowed considerably from the 2022 peak when the range spanned more than 15 percentage points.

ECB implications

The European Central Bank held its deposit facility rate at 2.25% at the September 2026 meeting and indicated that data was "evolving in line with projections". Most ECB watchers now anticipate a further 25bp cut at the December 2026 meeting, contingent on wage data and services inflation continuing to moderate. The ECB's September 2026 staff projections put 2026 average HICP at 2.4% and 2027 at 2.1%.

The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects the euro area at 2.3% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, broadly consistent with Eurostat's trajectory. The OECD's November Economic Outlook (due November 2026) is expected to confirm similar projections.

Note on flash vs final: The Eurostat flash estimate is based on data from member states covering about 95% of euro-area expenditure. The final release fills in all countries and refines weights. In September 2026, there was zero revision from flash to final — this is unusual but has occurred in several months during the current disinflation episode.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between a flash estimate and the final HICP?

Eurostat publishes a flash estimate around 30 days after the reference month, based on preliminary national data covering ~95% of euro-area household expenditure. The final release (about 17 days later) incorporates all member states and refines expenditure weights. Historically, revisions are small — typically ±0.1 percentage points. The Eurostat HICP methodology guide explains the estimation process in detail.

What does "core HICP" exclude and why?

Core HICP strips out energy, unprocessed food, alcohol and tobacco — categories whose prices are driven largely by global commodity markets and seasonal factors rather than domestic demand. Central banks use core inflation as a cleaner signal of underlying price pressures. The ECB Economic Bulletin and IMF World Economic Outlook both highlight core HICP as the primary measure for monetary policy assessment.

Why do inflation rates vary so much across euro-area countries?

Each country has its own energy mix, wage growth rate, housing market, and trade exposure. Countries with more gas-dependent energy systems saw sharper spikes in 2022 and sharper falls in 2023. Structural differences in wage bargaining, retail market competition, and taxation also contribute. The World Bank WDI data explorer lets you compare member-state rates side by side.

Is the ECB's 2% target for HICP or core HICP?

The ECB's monetary policy strategy defines the target as "2% over the medium term" for the headline HICP — not core. However, the ECB monitors core as a leading indicator of persistent inflationary or deflationary pressures. See also our inflation target glossary entry.

Euro area HICP confirmed at 2.9% for September 2026

Core inflation continues to ease

Country breakdown

ECB implications

Frequently asked questions

Sources

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