The FAO Food Price Index — a global benchmark tracking international prices of cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar — has fallen roughly 18% from its record peak in March 2022. For supermarkets in London, Paris and New York, this pass-through is now largely complete: food inflation in the US, EU and UK has cooled to 3–4%.

Why emerging markets are different

In emerging and developing economies, the story is more complicated. Three factors keep retail food prices elevated even as global commodity benchmarks fall:

  1. Currency depreciation: Food commodities are priced in US dollars. When a country's currency weakens against the dollar, import costs rise in local-currency terms even if dollar-denominated prices are flat. Since 2022, the dollar has appreciated significantly against the currencies of many food-importing nations in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America.
  2. Domestic supply constraints: Local production shortfalls from drought, flooding and conflict add a domestic supply shock on top of imported prices. The World Bank food price monitor documents acute price spikes in specific countries driven by local conditions.
  3. Weak transport and storage infrastructure: Post-harvest losses and logistics costs form a larger share of final food prices in emerging markets, insulating retail prices from falls in commodity benchmarks.

Where food inflation is still acute

According to World Bank CPI data and IMF WEO October 2026, around 38 countries still recorded food CPI above 10% in August 2026, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan), South Asia (Pakistan, Sri Lanka), and parts of Latin America. Pakistan's food CPI was running at ~18% in August despite headline CPI falling from its 2023 extreme.

What happens next

The FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) forecasts broadly stable global cereal supply in 2026/27, with above-average crops in North America and the Black Sea region. The near-term risk is La Niña weather patterns affecting South and Southeast Asian harvests through Q1 2027. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 projects global food commodity prices to remain below 2022 peaks in real terms through the end of the decade.

Data note: "Advanced economy" and "emerging market" aggregates are based on IMF country groupings. Food CPI sub-components are sourced from national statistical agencies via the World Bank WDI and IMF GFS databases. Country-level food CPI data is available in our Inflation Explorer.