UK consumer prices rose 3.0% in the 12 months to September 2026, down from 3.1% in August, according to the ONS. The modest decline was broad-based: services inflation eased one notch, food continued its downward trend, and energy made a smaller contribution than in the previous month.
Services inflation: the key number
Services inflation — the component the Bank of England uses as a gauge of domestic price persistence — dipped from 3.4% to 3.3%. That is still above the Bank's comfort zone, but the direction is encouraging. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Reports have consistently flagged that services inflation needs to fall toward 3% before the Monetary Policy Committee can confidently signal a return to target.
Services is largely wage-driven — it reflects the cost of the domestic labour going into haircuts, restaurants, hotel rooms, and professional services. With UK wage growth still running above 4%, some persistence in services inflation is expected. The ONS publishes monthly earnings data alongside the CPI release.
Food and fuel
Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation fell to 2.1%, continuing its descent from the 19.2% peak of early 2023. That earlier spike — driven by global supply shocks, energy costs for food production, and drought — has now largely unwound. Motor fuel made a smaller upward contribution than in August as oil prices eased and the base effect from last year faded.
What this means for Bank of England policy
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 7 November. A services rate of 3.3% and headline of 3.0% will not be alarming, but they are not yet at the levels that would clearly justify a rate cut. Markets will focus on the October wage data (due early November) and the Bank's own forecast in the November Monetary Policy Report. The full UK CPI history from 1989 is available on the ONS time series portal.