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Euro area flash HICP · December 2026

Eurostat publishes its flash estimate of euro-area consumer prices for December — the last major European inflation reading of 2026 and the first data point for the ECB's February 2027 meeting preparation.

Wednesday 7 January 2027 11:00 CET Online · ec.europa.eu/eurostat
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Where things stand going in

Previous release · 29 Nov 2026
EA HICP flash, Nov 2026
2.9%
Unchanged from October
EA core HICP, Oct 2026
2.7%
Services still sticky
ECB deposit rate
2.75%
After Dec 2026 cut
Energy base-effect risk
Upward
Dec 2025 was low-energy month

What gets published

Flash headline HICP

Eurostat's first estimate of the December year-on-year rate — typically within ±0.1 pp of the final figure.

Flash core estimate

Since 2023, Eurostat also publishes a flash core HICP (ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) alongside the headline.

Energy contribution

A split showing how much of the headline move is driven by energy prices — especially important in December due to base effects.

How to read it

1
Watch for a base-effect energy bounce

December 2025 had low energy prices — a favourable base for 2025 comparisons that now creates an upward base effect for December 2026. Headline may rise even if underlying inflation is stable.

Base effect →
2
Core is more informative than headline in December

Given the energy base effect, look at core HICP (ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) to judge the underlying trend. The ECB watches services within core most closely.

Core inflation →
3
This is an input to the February ECB meeting

The ECB next meets in February 2027. The December flash (plus January flash, published before that meeting) will be the key inflation data informing the rate path discussion.

Transmission mechanism →

On the day

January 2027 · times in CET
11:00
Eurostat publishes December flash HICP RELEASE

Flash headline and core estimates published on ec.europa.eu/eurostat.

12:00
Euro area page updated EXPLORER

Explorer updated with December flash estimate and year-end summary.

Evening
Flash release story in News NEWS

December flash in context: full-year 2026 review and what it means for 2027.

Around this event

FRI 12 DEC · 14:15 CET

ECB rate decision · December 2026

European Central Bank
SAT 29 NOV · 11:00 CET

Euro area flash HICP · November 2026

Eurostat

Frequently asked questions

When is Euro area flash HICP · December 2026 released?
Euro area flash HICP · December 2026 is scheduled for Wednesday 7 January 2027 at 11:00 CET. The data covers December 2026. The next release in the series is expected on Final December 2026 data · January 2027.
What does Eurostat publish in this release?
Flash headline HICP: Eurostat's first estimate of the December year-on-year rate — typically within ±0.1 pp of the final figure. Flash core estimate: Since 2023, Eurostat also publishes a flash core HICP (ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) alongside the headline. Energy contribution: A split showing how much of the headline move is driven by energy prices — especially important in December due to base effects. For detailed definitions of each measure, see the IMF inflation methodology.
How do I read the headline inflation number?
Watch for a base-effect energy bounce — December 2025 had low energy prices — a favourable base for 2025 comparisons that now creates an upward base effect for December 2026. Headline may rise even if underlying inflation is stable. Core is more informative than headline in December — Given the energy base effect, look at core HICP (ex-energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) to judge the underlying trend. The ECB watches services within core most closely. This is an input to the February ECB meeting — The ECB next meets in February 2027. The December flash (plus January flash, published before that meeting) will be the key inflation data informing the rate path discussion. For a deeper explanation of how consumer price indices are constructed, the IMF's primer on inflation is a reliable starting point.
Where can I follow the release live?
The official source is Online · ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Times shown are in CET — see the time-zone table on this page for your local equivalent. The Federal Reserve's economic data page and ECB statistics portal also carry same-day updates.
How does this compare to the previous release?
Going into this release: EA HICP flash, Nov 2026 was 2.9% (Unchanged from October); EA core HICP, Oct 2026 was 2.7% (Services still sticky); ECB deposit rate was 2.75% (After Dec 2026 cut); Energy base-effect risk was Upward (Dec 2025 was low-energy month). Historical releases and revisions are archived in the World Bank WDI inflation series.
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