ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision · December 2026

ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision · December 2026 is scheduled for Friday 12 December 2026 at 14:15 CET. The data covers December 2026. The next release in the series is expected on January 2027 · dates TBC.

Rate decision: The Governing Council's decision on the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, and marginal lending facility rate. Staff projections: December is a quarterly projection round — updated ECB staff forecasts for HICP inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment through 2028. Monetary policy statement: The written statement explaining the rationale for the decision, published simultaneously with the announcement. Press conference: President Lagarde's press conference at 14:45 CET with Q&A — the main channel for forward guidance signals. For detailed definitions of each measure, see the IMF inflation methodology.

Compare the decision to market pricing — Markets were pricing ~65% probability of a 25 bp cut. Whether the ECB delivers or surprises will drive the initial market reaction. Read the staff projections carefully — The December projections cover 2024–2028. Watch the 2027 HICP forecast — if it's revised up, the ECB may signal a slower pace of cuts. Watch the press conference for forward guidance — The rate decision tells you what happened today; Lagarde's press conference at 14:45 CET tells you what the ECB is thinking about next year. For a deeper explanation of how consumer price indices are constructed, the IMF's primer on inflation is a reliable starting point.

The official source is Online · ecb.europa.eu. Times shown are in CET — see the time-zone table on this page for your local equivalent. The Federal Reserve's economic data page and ECB statistics portal also carry same-day updates.

Going into this release: ECB deposit rate was 3.00% (As of October 2026); EA HICP, Nov 2026 flash was 2.9% (Down from 3.2% in August); EA core HICP, Oct 2026 was 2.7% (Ex-food & energy); Market-implied cut prob was ~65% (25 bp cut priced for Dec). Historical releases and revisions are archived in the World Bank WDI inflation series.