What gets published
All-items HICP annual rate for March 2027 — a preliminary estimate, typically within ±0.1pp of the final figure.
Energy HICP — highly volatile, but the March reading will reflect base effects from the March 2026 energy price levels.
Eurostat has recently begun publishing services HICP in the flash — the most watched sub-component for the ECB.
HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food — the ECB's primary disinflation tracker.
How to read it
The flash is a first estimate of whether HICP moved up or down. The prior reading was 2.4%. Any surprise relative to consensus (~2.3%) will move EUR/USD and ECB rate expectations.
12-month rate →Services HICP at 3.7% is the ECB's primary obstacle to further rate cuts. A reading below 3.5% in March 2027 would likely lock in an April cut.
Services inflation →March 2026 had an unusual energy price base (elevated due to geopolitical tension). This creates a mechanical downward base effect on the March 2027 headline — check core to see the underlying trend.
Base effect →On the day
April 2027 · times in CETHeadline HICP and components (energy, food, services, core) go live simultaneously.
Flash figures reflected in charts and stat cards. Country-level breakdown follows with the final release.
ECB Chief Economist typically comments at scheduled events — any reaction to the flash will be watched.
Full breakdown of what moved, why, and what it means for the April Governing Council.