What gets published
Euro area all-items HICP year-on-year rate for December 2026 — the first estimate, based on partial country data.
Energy and food HICP subindices, which drive most of the month-to-month volatility in the headline.
The ECB's key underlying inflation measure — typically released with the flash estimate but confirmed in the final.
Wage-driven component; the ECB watches this most carefully for sticky underlying inflation.
How to read it
The flash estimate is released about 30 days after the reference month, based on data from roughly 75% of member states. Revisions in the final release (mid-January) are usually small but can matter when the rate is close to a round number like 2%. Focus on the direction of change and the core/headline split rather than precise decimal places.
HICP →December CPI in the euro area is typically influenced by: (1) heating energy costs (gas and electricity); (2) holiday-season price surges in recreation, hotels, and air travel. These are seasonal effects that tend to reverse in January. Energy base effects from December 2025 will also affect the year-on-year comparison — check the energy contribution table to isolate this.
Seasonal adjustment →The ECB Governing Council meets 30 January 2027. The December flash HICP is the last major inflation data point before that decision. If core HICP is still at 2.7% or above, expect the ECB to hold or cut cautiously by 25 bp. A surprise above 3% core could cause markets to price out January cuts entirely.
ECB inflation target →On the day
JAN 2027 · times in UTCHeadline, energy, food, core, and services HICP estimates for December 2026.
Explorer reflects December 2026 flash data for the euro area.
ECB staff incorporates December inflation data into January meeting projections.
Euro area 2026 inflation in review: from 5.5% to 2.3% in 12 months.