InflationTheGuide
CENTRAL BANKUNITED STATESFOMC

FOMC rate decision — March 2027

The Federal Open Market Committee publishes its March 2027 rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (the "dot plot"). With core PCE at 2.6%, this is the meeting where markets will learn whether the Fed is ready to cut again or will wait for further progress.

WED 19 MAR 2027 14:00 ET (19:00 UTC) Federal Reserve
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Where things stand going in

Fed funds rate (Feb 2027)
4.25%
After 2 cuts since Sep 2026
Core PCE (Jan 2027)
2.6%
Lowest since Mar 2021; target: 2.0%
Unemployment (Jan 2027)
4.2%
Gradually rising; labour market cooling
Market-implied cut probability
72%
As of 2 weeks before meeting; CME FedWatch

What gets published

Rate decision and policy statement

The FOMC releases a statement at 14:00 ET announcing whether the federal funds target rate is unchanged, raised, or lowered. The statement includes forward guidance language — key phrases like "patient," "data-dependent," or "ongoing cuts" shift market expectations significantly.

Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)

The March meeting is one of four "projection meetings" per year where the FOMC publishes each member's rate forecast (the dot plot), plus GDP, unemployment, and inflation projections. The median dot for year-end 2027 will signal how many more cuts the Fed anticipates.

Chair Powell press conference

At 14:30 ET, Chair Powell holds a press conference where journalists can ask follow-up questions. His tone — hawkish or dovish — often matters more than the statement itself for the market reaction.

How to read it

1
Read the statement changes word-by-word

The Fed changes its statement language deliberately and minimally. Compare the March statement to the January statement word by word. Key phrases to watch: any removal of "restrictive" (signals cuts are working), addition of "gradual" (signals caution), or explicit mention of specific data (signals data dependency). Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal publish red-line comparisons within minutes of the release.

Inflation target →
2
Count the dots — where is the median for 2027?

The dot plot shows each FOMC member's year-end rate projection. In December 2026, the median 2027 dot was 3.875% (implying 2 more cuts). If the March median shifts to 3.625% (3 cuts) or lower, the Fed has turned more dovish. If it stays at 3.875%, the previous guidance is reaffirmed. The distribution matters too: a wide range signals disagreement.

Real interest rate →
3
Watch the 2027 PCE inflation projection

The SEP includes the FOMC's median projection for core PCE at year-end 2027. If this is revised down from 2.2% to 2.0%, it signals the Fed believes it is on track. If revised up, the dot plot will likely also be revised hawkishly. The PCE projection is the single most important number for judging the Fed's confidence in its own disinflationary path.

PCE price index →

On the day

MAR 2027 · times in UTC)
14:00 ET
FOMC statement and rate decision published RELEASE

Statement, vote breakdown, and SEP/dot plot all released simultaneously at fomc.gov and on the Fed's website.

14:30 ET
Chair Powell press conference CENTRAL BANK

30-minute press conference; journalists ask questions. Markets often move more on press conference tone than the statement.

15:30 ET
Major bank note reactions published NEWS

Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Fed watcher notes published. Updated rate path models distributed.

Next day
FOMC minutes preview articles NEWS

The full minutes are published three weeks after the meeting; preview articles try to infer the internal FOMC debate.

Around this event

WED 17 DEC · 14:00 ET

FOMC rate decision · December 2026

Federal Reserve
THU 11 DEC · 08:30 ET

US consumer prices · December 2026

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Frequently asked questions

When is FOMC rate decision — March 2027 released?
FOMC rate decision — March 2027 is scheduled for WED 19 MAR 2027 at 14:00 ET (19:00 UTC). The data covers March 2027.
What does Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publish in this release?
Rate decision and policy statement: The FOMC releases a statement at 14:00 ET announcing whether the federal funds target rate is unchanged, raised, or lowered. The statement includes forward guidance language — key phrases like "patient," "data-dependent," or "ongoing cuts" shift market expectations significantly. Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot): The March meeting is one of four "projection meetings" per year where the FOMC publishes each member's rate forecast (the dot plot), plus GDP, unemployment, and inflation projections. The median dot for year-end 2027 will signal how many more cuts the Fed anticipates. Chair Powell press conference: At 14:30 ET, Chair Powell holds a press conference where journalists can ask follow-up questions. His tone — hawkish or dovish — often matters more than the statement itself for the market reaction. For detailed definitions of each measure, see the IMF inflation methodology.
How do I read the headline inflation number?
Read the statement changes word-by-word — The Fed changes its statement language deliberately and minimally. Compare the March statement to the January statement word by word. Key phrases to watch: any removal of "restrictive" (signals cuts are working), addition of "gradual" (signals caution), or explicit mention of specific data (signals data dependency). Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal publish red-line comparisons within minutes of the release. Count the dots — where is the median for 2027? — The dot plot shows each FOMC member's year-end rate projection. In December 2026, the median 2027 dot was 3.875% (implying 2 more cuts). If the March median shifts to 3.625% (3 cuts) or lower, the Fed has turned more dovish. If it stays at 3.875%, the previous guidance is reaffirmed. The distribution matters too: a wide range signals disagreement. Watch the 2027 PCE inflation projection — The SEP includes the FOMC's median projection for core PCE at year-end 2027. If this is revised down from 2.2% to 2.0%, it signals the Fed believes it is on track. If revised up, the dot plot will likely also be revised hawkishly. The PCE projection is the single most important number for judging the Fed's confidence in its own disinflationary path. For a deeper explanation of how consumer price indices are constructed, the IMF's primer on inflation is a reliable starting point.
Where can I follow the release live?
The official source is Federal Reserve. Times shown are in UTC) — see the time-zone table on this page for your local equivalent. The Federal Reserve's economic data page and ECB statistics portal also carry same-day updates.
How does this compare to the previous release?
Going into this release: Fed funds rate (Feb 2027) was 4.25% (After 2 cuts since Sep 2026); Core PCE (Jan 2027) was 2.6% (Lowest since Mar 2021; target: 2.0%); Unemployment (Jan 2027) was 4.2% (Gradually rising; labour market cooling); Market-implied cut probability was 72% (As of 2 weeks before meeting; CME FedWatch). Historical releases and revisions are archived in the World Bank WDI inflation series.
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