What gets published
All-items CPI for urban consumers — 12-month rate and monthly change.
All items less food and energy — the steadiest underlying measure.
Rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent (OER) — the dominant core driver.
Services less shelter — the wage-driven component most watched by the Fed.
How to read it
Core CPI has been at 3.3% for three consecutive months. A move down to 3.1% would signal renewed momentum; a move up to 3.5% would be hawkish. Watch the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates — if the 3-month rate is running below the 12-month rate, the trend is decelerating.
Core inflation →Private market rent indices (Zillow, Apartment List) show new leases growing at ~2% — well below the 4.8–5.0% shelter CPI. Every month, some proportion of existing leases renews at the lower market rate, pulling the shelter CPI average down. A faster-than-expected shelter deceleration in November would be the biggest positive surprise possible.
OER methodology →Services CPI excluding shelter ("super-core") fell to 2.6% in October — its lowest reading in over three years. If November continues that downtrend, it gives the Fed strong grounds to proceed with a December cut. If it re-accelerates, the December cut probability falls sharply.
NAIRU and wage pressure →On the day
DEC 2026 · times in UTCFull CPI release including all categories, regional data, and average prices for selected items.
Explorer reflects November CPI data and updated trend charts.
FOMC blackout period begins 7 Dec — no public statements from Fed officials after this point before 17 Dec decision.
November CPI: is the shelter lag finally delivering the disinflation the Fed needs?