What gets published
The headline number: net jobs added or lost in the non-agricultural economy. Consensus expectations for November 2026 are approximately +175k. A number significantly above 200k would suggest a still-hot labour market, complicating the Fed's cutting path.
The U-3 unemployment rate. At 4.1%, unemployment is above the ~3.5% cyclical lows of 2022–23 but still historically low. A rise toward 4.3–4.5% would suggest cooling that supports rate cuts.
Wage growth — the most inflation-relevant component of the jobs report. The Fed watches AHE carefully: at +4.0% YoY, wages are modestly above the ~3.5% level consistent with 2% inflation at current productivity growth. A surprise acceleration above 4.2% would raise inflation concerns.
An increase in participation (more people entering the workforce) is considered non-inflationary: it expands labour supply, moderating wage growth. The participation rate has been near 62.7% since mid-2024 — below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting some remaining slack.
How to read it
The December FOMC decision is shaped by three data releases: November payrolls (5 Dec), November CPI (10 Dec), and November PCE (19 Dec — after the meeting). The payrolls report sets the tone: a strong report shifts the balance toward a pause; a weak report increases cut probability. CPI is then the decisive input. Think of payrolls as the first page of the December inflation story — it doesn't finish it, but it sets the chapter.
Neutral rate →Average Hourly Earnings is reported both as a year-on-year (YoY) and month-on-month (MoM) change. The YoY rate smooths seasonal variation and is the primary policy signal. The MoM rate can look volatile but sequential annualised MoM rates (multiply MoM by 12) give a current-pace estimate. If November AHE MoM is +0.4% (vs +0.3% expected), the annualised pace is ~4.8% — above the Fed's comfort zone and likely to increase scrutiny even if the YoY looks fine.
Real wages →On the day
DEC 2026 · times in ETNFP, unemployment, AHE published simultaneously. US Treasuries, US equities, and Fed Funds Futures react immediately. A strong number strengthens the dollar and raises 2-year Treasury yields.
The FOMC blackout period begins 8 December (Saturday before the meeting). Fed speakers can comment on the jobs data between release (5 Dec) and blackout start (8 Dec).
No Fed officials comment publicly from 8 December until the FOMC decision on 11 December.
The combination of November payrolls (5 Dec) and November CPI (10 Dec) together determine the December FOMC decision probability.