US Consumer Prices · February 2027

US Consumer Prices · February 2027 is scheduled for WED 11 MAR 2027 at 08:30 ET. The data covers February 2027.

All-items CPI YoY and MoM: The headline 12-month and 1-month change in consumer prices for February 2027. The seasonally adjusted MoM rate is the cleanest month-to-month signal; the NSA 12-month rate is the headline figure quoted in media. Core CPI (ex-food and energy): The Fed's primary CPI benchmark. February is a critical month for core because January seasonal factors (the "January effect" — large price resets in many services) can distort January data; February shows whether those January moves persist. Shelter CPI: The most closely watched component in 2026–27. Markets want to see evidence that the new-lease rent disinflation (Zillow index near 0% since mid-2023) is finally flowing through to the CPI shelter component at the expected pace. Services ex-shelter (supercore): The Fed's preferred underlying inflation gauge, tracking the services component most closely linked to domestic wage growth. A reading below 4.0% annualised would be meaningfully dovish for March FOMC pricing. For detailed definitions of each measure, see the IMF inflation methodology.

Watch for January seasonal revision carry-through — January CPI is notoriously difficult to interpret because many businesses reset prices at the start of the year — financial services, medical care, and some food categories often show large January adjustments. These "January effects" create a seasonal pattern that the BLS adjusts for, but the adjustment is imperfect. February CPI is a cleaner read: if the January jump in a category was genuine new inflation, it will persist into February. If it was seasonal noise, it will partly reverse. Professional forecasters compare the February seasonally-adjusted rate to see how much of January's surprise carries through. Shelter disinflation: is the pipeline flowing? — By February 2027, shelter CPI should be considerably below the 4.9% reading of September 2026 — private rent indexes suggest the disinflation pipeline is robust. If shelter CPI has not fallen materially to the 3.5–4.0% range by February 2027, it would suggest the lag is extending further than expected and would push back the timeline for core CPI to sustainably approach 2%. Read our US shelter CPI outlook for the full context on what to expect. March FOMC implications: the last data point before the decision — The February CPI release on 11 March is the last major inflation data point before the March FOMC meeting (typically mid-to-late March). This makes it unusually market-sensitive. If February core CPI surprises significantly higher (above 0.4% MoM SA), it could single-handedly shift market pricing from a cut to a hold at the March meeting. If it surprises to the downside (below 0.2% MoM SA), it would lock in a cut. The BLS also releases the February PPI two days later — together these are the two pre-meeting data points that matter most. Follow the March 2027 Fed rate decision event page for more context. For a deeper explanation of how consumer price indices are constructed, the IMF's primer on inflation is a reliable starting point.

The official source is Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI. Times shown are in ET — see the time-zone table on this page for your local equivalent. The Federal Reserve's economic data page and ECB statistics portal also carry same-day updates.

Going into this release: CPI YoY (Jan 2027) was ~3.0% (expected range; seasonally adjusted); Core CPI YoY (Jan 2027) was ~3.0% (ex food & energy); Shelter CPI (Jan 2027) was ~4.5% (still primary upside risk to core); Fed funds rate (Feb) was ~4.25–4.50% (expected level after Q4 2026 cuts). Historical releases and revisions are archived in the World Bank WDI inflation series.