US PCE price index · January 2027

US PCE price index · January 2027 is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2027 at 08:30 ET. The data covers January 2027. The next release in the series is expected on February 2027 PCE · late March.

Core PCE deflator: All items less food and energy — the Federal Reserve's primary inflation target (2% annual rate). Market consensus is the key comparison. Headline PCE: All-items PCE deflator — typically 0.2–0.4pp below CPI due to different basket weights and methodology. Personal income: Nominal and real personal income — context for whether spending is demand-driven or debt-financed. Personal spending: Nominal and real personal consumption expenditures — shows whether consumer demand is accelerating or decelerating. For detailed definitions of each measure, see the IMF inflation methodology.

Core PCE is the number that matters — The Fed targets "2% PCE inflation over the longer run." Core PCE is the operational measure watched at each FOMC meeting. December 2026 core PCE was 2.7%. A surprise above 2.8% would reduce March 2027 cut probability sharply. Compare to CPI — the gap matters — PCE typically runs 0.2–0.4pp below CPI due to lower housing weight and greater use of substitution. If CPI fell to 2.8% and PCE fell to 2.5%, that is a consistent signal. If they diverge, investigate which component is driving the difference. Real spending gives context — Strong real spending growth with high PCE is bad — demand is driving inflation. Weak real spending with falling PCE is ideal — demand is cooling and inflation following. Check both together. For a deeper explanation of how consumer price indices are constructed, the IMF's primer on inflation is a reliable starting point.

The official source is Online · bea.gov. Times shown are in ET — see the time-zone table on this page for your local equivalent. The Federal Reserve's economic data page and ECB statistics portal also carry same-day updates.

Going into this release: Core PCE, Dec 2026 was 2.7% (YoY, BEA — Fed's primary target); Headline PCE, Dec 2026 was 2.5% (Lower than CPI due to basket differences); Fed funds target was 4.00–4.25% (Post-December 2026 cut); Real PCE (Dec) was +0.3% (Monthly real spending growth). Historical releases and revisions are archived in the World Bank WDI inflation series.