The IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2026 is one of the most comprehensive global economic forecasts published twice yearly. Its inflation chapter spans 190+ countries and provides both the headline numbers most press coverage focuses on and a rich set of methodological notes that help you interpret what those numbers actually mean.
What the WEO forecasts mean
The WEO headline "global CPI" figure is a GDP-weighted average. Because emerging-market economies have both higher inflation rates and large GDPs (especially China, India, and Brazil), this aggregate is heavily influenced by developing-country prices. The "advanced economy" sub-aggregate — covering the G7, euro area, and a handful of high-income peers — is closer to what most readers in the US, UK and Europe experience.
The WEO uses national CPI data sourced from World Bank WDI, IMF Global Economic Monitor (GEM), and direct submissions from member-country statistical agencies. Staff projections are model-based but incorporate judgements from country teams with on-the-ground knowledge.
Key findings for 2026
Among advanced economies, the US, UK and euro area are all projected to end 2026 with inflation between 2.4% and 3.0% — above target but in the "approach zone". The main mechanism: energy prices have normalised, goods inflation has fallen, but services inflation remains sticky because wage growth has not yet fully moderated.
Among emerging markets, the picture is more heterogeneous. Turkey and Argentina remain outliers with very high inflation. Most of Asia (ex-Pakistan) has seen faster disinflation. Sub-Saharan Africa faces persistent food and FX-driven price pressures. The OECD CPI tracker and World Bank Global Economic Prospects offer complementary country-level views.
How to use WEO inflation data
The WEO's online database allows you to download annual CPI forecasts and historical data for all 190 member countries in a few clicks. Key points to note: WEO figures are annual averages (not year-end rates), GDP-weighted aggregates include oil exporters, and historical data may be revised between editions. For current-year comparisons, always check the edition date — the April and October WEOs can differ significantly if a major shock has occurred in between.