What gets published
The all-items CPI rate — the primary BoE target measure. The BoE's 2% target applies to the all-items CPI. At 3.0%, the UK is 1 pp above target, triggering the Governor's letter-writing obligation.
Services CPI (currently 5.6%) is the MPC's most closely watched internal measure. A meaningful decline toward 5.0–5.2% would significantly change the rate cut calculus for the February MPR.
CPIH (which includes owner-occupied housing) is the ONS's preferred measure but not the BoE's target. RPI (retail prices index) is used for gilt index-linking and many commercial contracts. Both are published alongside CPI.
Full breakdown by COICOP category: food, housing, transport, recreation, restaurants, clothing, education, communication, health. The December basket revision (published alongside the January release) adjusts item weights for the new year.
How to read it
Of all the components in the UK CPI release, services CPI is the single most watched by the BoE and City economists. It captures domestic wage-driven inflation most directly. A reading of 5.6%+ in December (the third consecutive unchanged month) would signal persistent services inflation that delays BoE rate cuts. A reading below 5.3% would be a meaningful downside surprise and likely bring forward market pricing for the next cut.
Services inflation →The January release (for December CPI) includes ONS's annual basket revision — a list of new and removed items used in the calculation. New items typically reflect changing spending patterns (e.g., streaming services added in recent years, certain physical media removed). Large changes to the basket can create apparent discontinuities in series and should be noted when comparing December to prior months.
Basket →On the day
JAN 2027 · times in GMTFull release with headline, core, services, CPIH, and category breakdown. Simultaneously published on ons.gov.uk. GBP reacts immediately to services CPI headline number.
Gilt yields and OIS forward rates reprice based on services CPI. A sub-5.3% services reading would bring forward cut pricing.
If CPI is above 3% (>1 pp deviation), the Governor's letter to the Chancellor is formally required. Typical timing is a few business days after the release, not same-day.