What gets published
The main release leads with CPI (the BoE's official target measure) and CPIH (which adds owner-occupier housing costs via rental equivalence, preferred by ONS). Both are published to one decimal place with a full 12-month and monthly chart.
ONS publishes the contribution of each of the 12 COICOP spending categories (food, housing, transport, recreation, etc.) to the overall CPI change. The services vs goods split is the most market-sensitive breakdown in the current cycle.
RPI (Retail Price Index) and RPIX (RPI ex mortgage interest) are published alongside CPI for historical continuity. RPI is used for rail fare setting and index-linked gilt uprating — it typically runs 0.5–0.8 pp above CPI due to its formula. Our guide to reading RPI explains the methodology.
How to read it
For the Bank of England's rate decision in May 2027, the single most important number will be whether services CPI is trending toward 4.5% or below. A January services reading above 5.5% would likely push a May cut to August. Below 5.0% and the May cut becomes probable. Services includes restaurants, hotels, air fares, education, insurance — all driven by domestic wages and margins rather than global commodity prices.
Core inflation →January CPI in the UK is distorted each year by annual education fee resets. University tuition fees and private school fees both reset in January, adding a mechanical spike to the education sub-index. The ONS publishes a table of "special items" — check whether the services acceleration is primarily education (one-off) or more broad-based (systemic). The BoE explicitly adjusts for this in its internal models.
Seasonal adjustment →The ONS provides an interactive data tool alongside the release allowing users to see year-on-year change for any CPI category going back to 1997. After the headline is absorbed, drill into: (1) food and non-alcoholic beverages (is grocery disinflation continuing?); (2) transport (motor fuel vs public transport); (3) housing costs under CPIH. This granularity tells you whether the headline is being moved by a few large categories or is genuinely broad-based.
Contribution →On the day
FEB 2027 · times in GMTFull statistical bulletin, data tables, and interactive charts go live simultaneously. GBP/USD moves within seconds.
BoE staff note the release internally; no public comment until the next MPC meeting.
Major bank UK economics teams publish flash analysis. Focus: services CPI momentum and May cut probability.
2-year gilt yields typically move 5–15bp on services surprises relative to expectations.
Some MPC members occasionally comment on the CPI release in scheduled speeches — check BoE events calendar.