Eurostat published its flash estimate for euro-area consumer prices on 29 November, putting HICP inflation at 2.9% in November — unchanged from October. The headline stability masks an important compositional shift: energy, which had been adding 0.5–1.0 percentage points to headline inflation throughout 2026, contributed approximately zero in November for the first time since early 2023.
Services: the persistent problem
Services inflation held at 3.5% for the third consecutive month. This is the measure the European Central Bank watches most closely, because services prices reflect domestic labour costs and demand rather than global energy markets. At 3.5%, services inflation is still running roughly 1.5 percentage points above a level consistent with the ECB's 2% HICP target. The ECB's own analysis — published in its Economic Bulletin — attributes services persistence partly to one-off catch-up in travel and hospitality, and partly to above-target wage growth of around 4.5%.
Country divergence
The flash estimate does not break down individual countries, but the October final data showed significant divergence: Germany at 2.4%, France at 1.9%, Spain at 1.8%, and Italy at 1.4% — all below the 2% target — while Slovakia (4.8%), Belgium (4.4%), and Austria (3.7%) remained above it. The Eurostat statistics explained page on euro-area inflation provides country breakdowns updated after each final release. The World Bank WDI provides long-run annual data for all euro-area members for historical comparisons.
December ECB meeting
The ECB's Governing Council meets on 11 December. Markets are pricing a 25 basis-point cut in the deposit facility rate from 3.25% to 3.00%. The November flash HICP — unchanged at 2.9% — neither strengthens nor weakens the case for a cut relative to October. Final November HICP data, with country and component breakdowns, will be published by Eurostat on 17 December — after the ECB meeting. President Lagarde's press conference following the decision will be streamed live on ecb.europa.eu.